Archive for: December 2008


Nato’s multiple futures scenarios

PanelVanKappen.jpgGlobalisation has created an unprecedented boost in technology and an increase in wealth and knowledge for many. But not everybody has benefited equally from its blessings. In some nations it has brought social and cultural fragmentation, which resulted in bloody wars and fragile or even failed states.On top of globalisation there are other drivers of change and uncertainty, such as demographic change, climate change, pandemics, terrorism, scarcity of natural resources and many others.

Nobody knows what the resulting vector from all these drivers will be. To prepare for what cannot be predicted is the challenge we face.  Few nations can meet this challenge on their own.

Therefore, Nato is making a gallant attempt to meet this challenge collectively and started an ambitious project named ‘Multiple Futures’ (MFP) a year ago. The project is to explore what the future could possibly look like in 10-25 years from now and provide the best military advice to support strategic decision-making. The project is part of Nato’s unceasing quest how to protect the peace, security and territorial integrity of its 26 member states, now and in the future.

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Use tax instrument for green strategy only

PanelVan_Rij.jpgPractically all western economies are facing a serious recession in 2009. Each government is considering extra fiscal stimulus measures to boost its national economy

In order to  stimulate  investments in the private sector some governments (like in Australia and the Netherlands) have announced additional or accelerating depreciation incentives. These incentives make it possible to write off in two years in stead of five or ten years.

Other governments are enhancing consumption  by decreasing the value added tax. (e.g.  2.5 percent in Britain). Initiatives to diminish (corporate) income, however, seem to be less urgent.
Governments have to prepare for dramatic budget deficits as a result of the sharp downturn in the economies. Less tax will be collected. So they should be prudent in using the tax instrument.
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Burning issues in climate negotiations

FrescoPanel.jpgBiofuels figure largely in the new round of climate negotiations to prepare a post-Kyoto agreement. Biofuels have been hailed as the carbon neutral or at least a low carbon alternative to fossil fuels. But the tides have turned and critics argue that if the total life cycle of biofuel production is taken into account, they are less efficient than fossil fuels and may even contribute to net carbon emissions. Moreover, so-called ‘indirect land use effects’ could take land away from food production or nature reserves.In this respect, US president-elect Obama could play a pivotal role. Unfortunately, he has put himself in a complicated position.

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Green and autonomous

PanelLlagendijk.jpgEuropean leaders agreed on binding measures to curb global warming a few days ago. French president Nicolas Sarkozy proudly announced that the European Union had delivered on its promise to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 20 percent  by 2020. He called the decision a historic one and challenged the United States to match European ambitions.

Many analysts and representatives of environmental movements were not pleased with the numerous concessions made to the power sector in Eastern European countries and to heavy industry sectors like steel and chemicals.

What surprised me was the fact that so little was written in the press on the agreement reached on renewable energies. Of all the energy produced in 2020 in the EU 20 percent should come from renewable sources like sun, wind and biomass. This deal should stimulate major investment in renewables, creating millions of jobs and confirming EU leadership in what is a key industry of the 21st century.

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Mumbai today, Amsterdam tomorrow

ENGWildersM.jpgTwo weeks ago, the world witnessed the Indian city of Mumbai being hit hard by terror attacks that lasted for several days. Now that the smoke of battle is starting to clear, the question of who is responsible is subject to debate. Most of the Western media stick to naming the culprits as being members of ‘separatist movements’. In doing so, they are missing the main point and are unjustly ignoring the Islamic nature of the terror attacks.  Lees verder »

Economic principles threaten sports

PanelTimmermans.jpgA year and a half ago, when I started to raise the subject, I was met with a lot of scepticism. “The EU and sports, what the hell is the connection?”, was the general sentiment wherever I went. Since the infamous Bosman ruling of the European Court of Justice [which allowed professional football players in the EU to move freely], the general assumption is that sports in general and football in particular are economic activities governed by the same internal market rules as other economic activities.Now we know that the unlimited application of this principle threatens to undermine the very structure of European sports.

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